Overview
September has maintained the trend set in July by continuing on a steady upward trajectory. Baes on the analysis of the change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, and Unemployment Rate in our focus countries, for the most part, things are looking good.
GDP:
Egypt has not updated its figures since Q4 2022. This most likely due to its ongoing economic crisis and ballooning inflation. However, the government plans to launch 27 reform measures totalling $5billion from next month to help bolster its economy. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the current report, were Manufacturing ($10.1billion), Agriculture ($9.2billion), and Construction ($4.3billion).
Ghana provided the latest report on its GDP (for Q2 2023). The Q3 2023 Report has not been released. Unfortunately, overall performance fell short of expectations as it declined to 3.2% in Q2 2023 from 3.3% in Q1 2023. The previously reported value of 4.2% for Q1 2023 was later revised down to to 3.3%. The decline was attributed to contraction in key subsectors, like Construction and Manufacturing. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the current report, were Services ($1.9billion), Agriculture ($900million), and Construction ($500million).
Kenya provided the latest report on its GDP (for Q2 2023). The Q3 2023 Report has not been released As expected, however so slightly, Kenya continues on a positive growth trajectory. GDP increased from 5.3% in Q1 2023 to 5.4% in Q2 2023. This follows the incredible improvement in Q1 2023 (5.3%) from 3.7% in Q4 2022. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the current report, were Agriculture ($3.4billion), Transportation ($1.6billion), and Manufacturing ($1.4billion).
Morocco provided the latest report on its GDP (for Q2 2023). The Q3 2023 Report has not been released. Surprisingly, its GDP declined, from 3.5% in Q1 2023 to 2.3% in Q2 2023. The decline has been attributed to a 3.1% increase in Government spending and a corresponding decline in investments. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the current report, were Services ($16.3billion), Manufacturing ($4.0billion), and Public Administration ($3.3billion).
Nigeria provided the latest report on its GDP (for Q2 2023). The Q3 2023 Report has not been released. Due to the implemented reforms instituted by President Tinubu, GDP grew to 2.51% in Q2 2023 (from 2.3% in Q1 2023). The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the current report, were Services ($9.7billion), Agriculture ($5.0billion), and Manufacturing ($2.3billion).
NB: Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Services are major contributors to the GDPs of most African countries. This may a good indicator of sectors in which an infusion of technology could be GDP-transforming.
Inflation:
Inflation in Egypt declined by 170 bps to 38.00% in September. The value in August 2023 was 39.70%.
*The Egyptian Government has been able to stabilize the price of bread, grains, poultry, and meat.
Ghana declined by 200 bps to 38.10% in September. The value in August 2023 was 40.10%.
*The Ghanaian Cedi has been relatively stable since receiving the $3billion ECF from the IMF.
Kenya increased by 10 bps to 6.80% in September. The value in August 2023 was 6.70%.
*The marginal increase was due to an increase in the prices of diesel, petrol, and kerosene.
The September 2023 Report on Inflation in Morocco has not been released. However, it increased by 10 bps to 5.00% in August and the value in July 2023 was 4.90%.
The September 2023 Report on Inflation in Nigeria has not been released. However, it increased by 172 bps to 25.80% in August and the value in July 2023 was 24.08%.
Interest:
The Central Bank of Egypt maintained the interest rate at 19.25% in September (from August). The rate was increased by 100 bps to 19.25% in August 2023.
The Bank of Ghana maintained the interest rate at 30.00% in September (from July). The rate was increased by 50 bps to 30.00% in July 2023.
The Central Bank of Kenya maintained the interest rate at 10.50% in September (from June). The same rate has been maintained since June 2023.
The Bank Al-Maghrib of Morocco maintained the interest rate at 3.00% in September (from March). The same rate has been maintained since March 2023.
The Central Bank of Nigeria maintained the interest rate at 18.75% in August (from July). The rate was increased by 25 bps to 18.75% in July 2023.
NB: Egypt, Ghana, and Nigeria have high interest rates as they grapple with relatively high inflation.
Unemployment:
The Q3 2023 Unemployment Report for Egypt has not been released. However, it declined by 10 bps from 7.10% in Q1 2023 to 7.00% in Q2 2023.
Unemployment rate in Ghana has not been updated (3.90% in Q4 22 YOY). However, it is expected to reduce in line with the improvements in its economy – declining inflation rate and maintained interest rate – despite the marginal decline in its GDP in September.
Unemployment rate in Kenya has not been updated (4.90% in Q4 22 YOY). However, it is expected to reduce in line with the restabilization of its economy; particularly its revitalized Agriculture sector and booming Services Sector.
The Q3 2023 Unemployment Report for Morocco has not been released .However, it declined by 50 bps from 12.90% in Q1 2023 to 12.40% in Q2 2023.
The Q3 2023 Unemployment Report for Nigeria has not been released. However, it declined by 292 bps from 33.30% in Q4 2020 to 4.1% in Q1 2023.
NB: This dramatic drop was not necessarily due to creation of jobs, but the redefinition of “unemployment” in line with the new guidelines of the International Labour Organization – which in part states defines employment as any labour for profit even for an hour within seven (7) days. However, this does not negate the fact that there has been significant job creation, particularly in the services and tech sectors.
